Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 2.565406 2.985546 3.450781 4.003891 4.643341 5.359199 6.221291
2026-01-18 1.893260 2.451420 3.135504 4.034440 5.183682 6.602935 8.488408
2026-01-25 1.459232 2.062859 2.866901 4.013632 5.604779 7.732444 10.792352
2026-02-01 1.106921 1.686478 2.515103 3.781899 5.665574 8.358828 12.498847
2026-02-08 0.885616 1.440393 2.284018 3.653940 5.816700 9.092893 14.426172
2026-02-15 0.743304 1.281479 2.146021 3.627204 6.093054 10.023959 16.754858
2026-02-22 0.663737 1.206088 2.121475 3.767187 6.640455 11.434786 20.023224
2026-03-01 0.571765 1.091392 2.009880 3.737097 6.889229 12.376655 22.626922
2026-03-08 0.492152 0.983919 1.891665 3.672124 7.058800 13.192407 25.105378
2026-03-15 0.434926 0.908112 1.817765 3.673707 7.343156 14.238468 28.125961
2026-03-22 0.418564 0.909533 1.889205 3.961513 8.206236 16.455532 33.629089
2026-03-29 0.382338 0.863843 1.860200 4.043285 8.671383 17.964445 37.941943
2026-04-05 0.346621 0.815404 1.822586 4.111048 9.137617 19.575873 42.767781
2026-04-12 0.310507 0.760304 1.763366 4.125925 9.500210 21.036771 47.515544
2026-04-19 0.276110 0.703072 1.690449 4.099018 9.767858 22.334933 52.102713
2026-04-26 0.232785 0.616434 1.536461 3.860630 9.519703 22.473429 54.133317
2026-05-03 0.202282 0.556132 1.434682 3.729456 9.500732 23.120190 57.413302
2026-05-10 0.181512 0.517225 1.378798 3.701971 9.727234 24.363559 62.272680
2026-05-17 0.171472 0.505341 1.389222 3.844697 10.399179 26.757631 70.259395
2026-05-24 0.154656 0.471485 1.336857 3.813976 10.619922 28.072188 75.722994
2026-05-31 0.138398 0.436217 1.275016 3.747689 10.736433 29.138805 80.696541
2026-06-07 0.126547 0.411870 1.239545 3.749300 11.038088 30.724136 87.256972
2026-06-14 0.125745 0.421386 1.302304 4.042887 12.200435 34.745497 100.951384